Africa’s population will more than double between now and 2050 – to 2.5 billion people. With rising living standards, per capita GDP is set to grow up to 5x in that time. If Africa reaches middle-income status with the same emission intensity as current middle-income countries, Africa will add 12Gt of CO2e emissions by 2050 (over 20% of global 2019 emissions) – which would make it impossible to reach global climate objectives.
Africa will grow – but Africa’s emissions should not.
Environmentally sustainable growth is, for the first time in human history, not only possible but often even the economically smart choice – and nowhere more so than in Africa. As the continent with the smallest installed industrial capacity and massive untapped renewable energy, Africa is ideally positioned to go ‘green from the start’. Capital shifts towards greener options, yet Africa does not benefit enough from that. ‘Green first’ innovations need to touch all sectors of the economy with changes in design, material choices and production. This will not only help to avoid a climate catastrophe, but – at least as importantly – it will help drive inclusive economic growth and create stability for Africa.
Africa will grow - but Africa’s emissions should not.
As the continent with the smallest installed industrial capacity and massive untapped renewable energy, Africa is ideally positioned to go ‘green from the start’.
Africa has less high-emission infrastructure it needs to decommission and can therefore use most of its new renewable energy to expand production capacity rather than to replace fossil-fuel powered processes. Of course, some countries will face a greater transition challenge than others (with South Africa’s emission-intense economy and electricity sector facing a particularly complex transition challenge). Despite these differences between countries, for Africa as a whole, the growth challenge is the much bigger question than the transition challenge
Capital shifts towards greener options, yet Africa does not benefit enough from that.
The risk of climate catastrophe is increasingly being priced into the cost of capital. As a result, financing for greener alternatives tends to be more affordable. It is also increasingly abundant as financiers shift their portfolios and new financial instruments are being developed and deployed to de-risk these investments. However, Africa currently only attracts 3% of global climate finance – nowhere near enough.
‘Green first’ innovations need to touch all sectors of the economy with changes in design, material choices and production.
Let’s take the built environment as an example. 40% of all global urban building activity between now and 2050 will happen in African cities. But Africa produces less than 1% of the global steel production – and not for lack of iron ore. African iron ore is exported, turned into steel and transported back to Africa – burning massive amounts of fossil fuels in the process.
That needs to change.
- Different designs of buildings and cities can reduce the amount of materials needed in building them and the amount of energy needed to live comfortably in them. For example, optimising passive design and applying energy-efficient technologies across cities in sub-Sahara Africa, can keep the energy need for cooling/ heating constant – as opposed to a tripling need by 2050 using current approaches
- New materials with lower embedded emissions can be used such as cross-laminated timber
- Onshoring of production of traditional materials (such as steel) using renewable energy, can cut a huge proportion of its associated emissions.
This will not only help to avoid a climate catastrophe, but – at least as importantly – it will help drive inclusive economic growth and create stability for Africa.
Green industrialisation will
- Improve trade balances (Africa currently has a $ 12 bln trade deficit) and reduce dependence on global supply chains
- Reduce the strain on the forex reserves of African countries and the pressure on the exchange rates of African currencies
- Create millions of jobs. If manufacturing jobs in SSA countries got to the same proportion as the world’s average, they would grow by over 70%, driving ~35 mln new (direct) jobs – and with increasing production for export demand, this could grow even further