To get to global net zero by 2050, we must collectively reduce the emissions of everything we consume and produce. African countries have a key role to play in the global decarbonisation process – and offer opportunities for ‘green-from-the-start’ industrial production and manufacturing that can propel their inclusive sustainable growth and job creation.

Most people intuitively realise many parts of Africa on average are sunnier than industrialised countries. Yet what often goes unnoticed, is the combined effect of high capacity factors and low seasonality. This means that renewable energy (RE)-powered 24/7 industrial production is not a mirage. In fact, the lowest-cost captive-power-and-storage system providing 98% power reliability for industrial production using only solar and wind energy, costs just 1/3 in Kenya of what it costs in European industrial heartland Germany – and only half the cost of Europe’s ideal RE-location Spain, because a smaller overall system with a smaller battery size suffices. Please see our detailed reports below for comparisons between various African locations (Kenya, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone) and various locations in Europe and the US. For an even more detailed, geospecific understanding of Africa’s renewable energy potential, please visit our RE dashboard which allows you to explore untapped potential on a 1×1 km grid, and helps you understand this potential in the context of existing capacity.

But Africa’s untapped renewable energy potential is only part of the story. Africa is home to the youngest and fastest growing labour force, and massive deposits and stocks of relevant natural assets and resources, such as critical minerals. Historically, Africa’s mineral resources have been exploited without substantial local value addition and job creation – and with a focus on extraction for export. Paradoxically, African countries rich in oil simultaneously import most of their fuel consumption and other industrial and manufactured goods, limiting local sector development and driving heavy import dependency. For example, over 98% of Africa’s very sizeable bauxite production (nearly 25% of the global bauxite production) is exported as just that: unprocessed bauxite – whilst bauxite processing is an energy-hungry, largely electricity-driven process. We have analysed the co-location of minerals deposits, current mining capacity and infrastructure, and high-quality untapped renewable energy potential, and we quantified the potential impact, in both climate, job creation, and revenue potential, for bauxite processing, iron ore processing, and green steel production. Another area of great potential, is green hydrogen production, as an energy carrier, green industrial feedstock, and input to a range of derivative products, including sustainable fuels (for maritime and aviation transport, amongst others) and green fertiliser.

For many decades, energy – in the form of highly energy-dense fossil fuels – was easy and cheap to transport and store, which is far less the case for electricity. In a rapidly electrifying world, different factors can and should drive production location decisions. Geopolitical factors and a desire for a more strategic independence already fuel this discussion in many parts of the world. Yet new partnerships, and in particular a different role for African countries, do not yet feature as prominently. Whilst industrialised regions struggle to bring renewable energy generation capacity online sufficiently quickly to both transition consumptive use and decarbonise industrial production, Africa’s renewable energy potential remains largely untapped for lack of bankable (industrial) anchor demand. Globally interlinked supply chains that deploy production capacity where it makes most economic and climate sense, will have to look differently.

Realising this transformative potential requires concerted effort. African governments need to strengthen the enabling environment for this green industrial investment and development, reforms of the international financial architecture must support the right amount and type of capital allocation, and trade rules should create market access on fair and equitable terms, truly incentivising climate-smart solutions with a high global bar on transparency, integrity, and quality. African Heads of State recognise this in the Nairobi Declaration, in which they embrace Climate Positive Growth as Africa’s growth and development paradigm and commit to leaning in on making this happen.

At CAP-A, we work across data and analytics, narrative and advocacy, proof-of-concept, and policy and regulation to realise Climate Positive Growth, combining a systemic approach with the detailed technical understanding that is needed to align incentives for climate-smart and future-proof decision-making. Global green industrialisation requires a renewed type of global partnership – one that prioritises collective long-term self-interest over short-term control. The future of mankind, and all life on earth, depends on the choices we make now.