What the fertiliser shock means for Africa · CAP-A
In late May, CAP-A argued in African Business that the war in the Middle East was choking the world’s fertiliser supply — and that Africa, which imports most of the fertiliser it uses, risked being priced out of the market altogether. This is where that shortfall now stands.
Africa imports nearly all its fertiliser, so when the world makes less, it is the price-taking buyer that goes short first. Iran and Qatar, the plants at the heart of the shock, remain offline on a multi-year rebuild — and the urea they never made is gone for good.
The shortfall, in African termsthe same lost tonnes, set against what Sub-Saharan Africa needs
≈9 months
of Sub-Saharan Africa’s annual nitrogen use, expressed as urea-equivalent
=
4.0–4.9 Mt
of urea never produced since the outage began
=
of all the urea the world would normally have made in that time
What’s gone — and what each further year costs
Even the loss so far is on the scale of Africa’s whole year
million tonnes of urea, against Sub-Saharan Africa’s entire annual nitrogen use, with both figures expressed as urea-equivalent
▲
So why has the price recovered? Urea has fallen about 30–36% from its April peak, back near pre-war levels, as the wartime panic premium drained out of the market. But a price reflects sentiment, not supply: the tonnes charted above are still missing, and a calmer market has not refilled a single silo.
How the situation has changed
The picture eased — but not where it counts
urea capacity affected, million tonnes a year — offline, production cuts and at-risk: first analysis vs now
Capacity offlineProduction cutsCapacity at risk — still producing, not a loss
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What about Europe? Europe’s plants largely kept producing through 2026 — its gas squeeze was far milder than in 2022 — so little urea was actually lost, and it sits outside the figures above. The exposure is real but latent: up to ~17 Mt of gas-dependent capacity (≈3× Sub-Saharan Africa’s annual nitrogen use, expressed as urea-equivalent) could curtail in a severe, 2022-scale spike. A risk to watch, not a loss to count.
Bottom line
The price has recovered; the lost fertiliser has not. India’s plants are back and Saudi cargoes are moving again — but Iran and Qatar, the heart of the shock, remain offline on a multi-year rebuild. The world has already lost 4.0–4.9 Mt of urea, about nine months of Sub-Saharan Africa’s nitrogen use on a like-for-like urea-equivalent basis, and every further year those plants stay down costs another 12–15 Mt. For Africa — importing nearly all its fertiliser and unable to outbid wealthier buyers — a falling price is relief, not repair.
Source: CAP-A internal analysis. Cumulative production losses calculated to 29 June 2026; supply constraints last checked 13 July 2026. Figures are tonnes of urea product or the urea-equivalent of nitrogen demand; ranges show low–high estimates. Sub-Saharan African nitrogen demand is shown for scale and expressed as urea-equivalent.Offline capacity is shown at 100% utilisation (rated nameplate). The forward figure (13.3 Mt) covers Iran and Qatar; the further 0.6 Mt in the offline band (13.9 Mt) is Bahrain’s GPIC, which we understand is back online or imminently so.
